Recently, aluminum oxide plants have been experiencing frequent production changes, and market sentiment remains cautious. As the April settlement month comes to a close, industry attention is shifting towards the price outlook for the May settlement month. The plants and groups are considering plans to reduce production capacity, while new capacity may begin to be output, so the price direction still requires further market feedback.

The transaction volume both domestically and internationally is relatively low, with a heavy market wait-and-see sentiment. Short-term prices are expected to remain stable. The price of domestic alumina in China is expected to range between 2860 and 2880 CNY/ton in the next trading day.

The inquiry and transaction activity in the spot market has increased. The transaction focus remains within the quotation range, but it is more inclined towards high quotation levels. After the maintenance of large-scale alumina enterprises, there is a possibility of partial production cuts, and the production cuts across the entire industry are still accumulating.

At the current stage, the uncertainty in ore supply has increased, and the real-time transaction price of overseas alumina has risen significantly compared to the previous period. Market trading sentiment has notably improved from the previous sluggish state. Domestic alumina enterprises have gradually increased their stage-specific production cuts due to maintenance or voluntary reductions, leading to a rise in short-term supply shortages. Some aluminum plants with low inventories, as well as traders who need to fulfill long-term contracts, are actively seeking to source alumina. As a result, the short-term resilience of alumina spot prices has further strengthened.

The factory transaction prices and intended quotations in both Shanxi and Shandong have risen compared to the extremely low transaction prices from the previous period, with significantly fewer low-price transactions and quotations. Although the decline in prices has slowed, the lack of upward momentum has resulted in prolonged industry losses, and the limited reduction in industry scale has led to a prolonged supply adjustment period, which continues to be the primary issue in the market. Price changes are largely driven by supply adjustments.

The alumina supply side has seen a temporary reduction in actual production, but the inventory accumulated in previous periods remains at high levels. Although some positive factors have emerged in the market, their duration has been relatively short, and the current production cuts are not sufficient to support prices. Moreover, the market sentiment is still influenced by the expectation of new capacity, which remains a bearish factor. Therefore, it is expected that the downward trend in alumina prices will be difficult to stop in the short term.