The alumina market is expected to remain in a stalemate. While periodic production cuts provide some support—preventing further declines in spot prices—the pressure from substantial overall supply hinders any upward breakout, suggesting that prices will likely remain stable. In the longer term, market fundamentals will depend on the implementation of production restrictions during the heating season, as well as the progress of production restarts and the ramp-up of new capacity; ultimately, shifts in market fundamentals will be determined by the actual operating rates of alumina production facilities.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

Alumina production has declined significantly, driven by operational constraints and output cuts; however, the potential for capacity restarts—compounded by the anticipated impact of new capacity—suggests that the market will remain under considerable pressure in the long term. With policy announcements for the upcoming heating season drawing near, spot prices for alumina have shown unusual movement, and price pressures within the market may experience short-term volatility in response to unexpected developments.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

Recently, procurement bid prices from electrolytic aluminum enterprises have retreated from previous levels, leading to a corresponding decline in benchmark market prices. This has exacerbated the “cost inversion” (where production costs exceed selling prices) for alumina refineries, further strengthening market expectations that these firms will reduce output. Meanwhile, short-term production adjustments at certain plants have influenced market sentiment; consequently, spot prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.   （Chinese version）     （English version）

Frequent fluctuations in China’s operating alumina capacity may alleviate persistent downward pressure on prices. This, combined with cost-price inversions—where production costs exceed market prices—and anticipated production cuts driven by heating-season policies, could help stabilize domestic spot alumina prices for the time being, pending new market developments. Meanwhile, the relative strength of overseas alumina prices provides further support for domestic prices moving forward.

Although operating rates in the alumina market have declined compared to the previous period, the introduction of new capacity and the resumption of previously idled capacity suggest a potential increase in output. Consequently, expectations of high market supply persist, fueling ongoing price volatility. On the cost side, key factors to monitor include fluctuations in ocean freight rates for bauxite from Guinea and changes in caustic soda prices. Costs are expected to remain relatively stable, hovering around 2,750 yuan per tonne; however, given the current low price levels, alumina producers will likely continue to face a situation where production costs exceed market prices.

The domestic alumina market currently remains in a state of tug-of-war. While market pressure has eased somewhat, the fundamental supply-demand dynamic has not shifted; supply remains ample, and the combination of high inventories and weak demand continues to fuel a bearish sentiment. Conversely, production pressures—exacerbated by costs exceeding selling prices—along with the potential for exports, suggest a possible contraction in domestic alumina supply, which could foster a bullish outlook. Ultimately, however, the trajectory of alumina prices will depend on shifts in supply-demand fundamentals, specifically the operating rates of alumina refineries. In the near term, spot prices are expected to remain under pressure and continue their downward trend.