The price of spot alumina remains high and stable, with northern quotes around 4,100 yuan. The Federal Reserve's unexpected significant rate cut of 50 basis points has generated a positive sentiment in the commodity market, leading to an upward trend in most commodity prices. Before the end of the year, sporadic demand for alumina may become a key driver for price increases.

The number of producers of alumina with the capability to ensure timely supply is limited, leading to a continuous widening of quotes and transaction premiums. In the Jin-Yu region, due to the presence of scattered alumina enterprises with the capacity for ongoing small-scale spot sales, price discovery is relatively continuous and active, resulting in noticeable price increases. In contrast, the Lu-Gui region, with a larger number of long-term contracts and sufficient bulk orders, has limited export surplus, resulting in weaker price discovery compared to the Jin-Yu region, where prices remain relatively stable.  

Domestic and international supply continues to be disrupted by various unexpected events and maintenance, making significant improvements unlikely in the near term. As the two holidays approach and year-end inventory needs increase, the demand for alumina in the spot market has risen, leading to frequent transactions at a premium. Price discovery is primarily trending upwards.

There are no clear signs of improvement in supply in the spot market. Before the end of the year, the main potential negative factors for the alumina spot market are: firstly, a moderate relaxation of domestic open-pit mining; and secondly, a renewed concentration of production shutdowns due to water shortages in Yunnan. Currently, the potential negative conditions of supply and demand are not observed. In the short term, the spot premium transactions still have fundamental support, particularly as the year-end approaches. The Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and winter storage are direct factors contributing to the spot premium transactions due to inventory purchases.

The atmosphere for stocking up ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, as well as for purchasing inventory for the heating season, is gradually intensifying. In the context of no significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals, factors such as the upward trend in aluminum prices, the stocking-up atmosphere, concentrated demand, and active trade involvement could drive up spot market prices and lead to frequent small increases in spot transactions.

The basis remains around 150 RMB due to the increase in spot prices. Financial traders are significantly increasing their willingness to sell spot goods in the far-end delivery warehouses, and downstream buyers are actively purchasing. Essentially, every sale results in a transaction. However, the available spot supply around the delivery warehouses is limited, and the small supply scale cannot alleviate the supply pressure from nearby aluminum plants. In northern production areas, alumina is also experiencing a new round of concentrated purchasing driven by demand. Although spot transactions remain relatively few, frequent trading is continually driving price discovery. Currently, spot prices in Shanxi are generally trending above 4000 RMB.