Before the Chinese New Year, some downstream companies have nearly completed their stockpiling. Additionally, considering factors such as the decrease in transport capacity, there is little further willingness to stockpile, and the market transaction pace may slow down compared to the previous period. However, the price of alumina will continue to trend downward. It is expected that the price of domestically produced alumina in China will range from 4300 to 4410 CNY/ton in the next trading day.

The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and with the expected rebound of the market price nearing the 4000 yuan/ton level, the market's spot transaction activity is likely to decrease. However, the atmosphere will still maintain a downward trend. In terms of transportation, short-term capacity may start to decrease, with recovery expected only after the Spring Festival. As for alumina costs, the high mineral prices are being transmitted to production, causing the cost level to continue rising. With costs and prices moving in opposite directions, attention should still be paid to when high-cost alumina production will experience cost inversion.

The current focus in the alumina market is more on negative factors such as the upcoming new production capacity coming online. With no obvious positive factors to stimulate the market, it is expected that the bearish sentiment will dominate in the short term. However, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, considering transportation restrictions and the fact that some downstream enterprises are nearing the end of their inventory replenishment, it is anticipated that the transaction pace will gradually slow down. Based on the generally weak market conditions, alumina prices are expected to decline.

The prices of alumina both domestically and internationally have been falling synchronously, and the market's bearish sentiment has not yet changed. Some new production capacities are expected to be commissioned in the first half of the year, and in the short term, alumina prices will continue their downward trend. Some electrolytic aluminum companies are still expected to have a small amount of inventory replenishment demand before the Chinese New Year holiday. In terms of market transactions, there may be occasional small deals.

The alumina market continues to see frequent small transactions, with prices continuing to decline compared to previous periods. From the current market situation, it is difficult to expect any significant positive factors in the short term. As a result, some industry players hold a bearish outlook for the future market, with the price expected to continue to fall in the near term.

As the Spring Festival approaches, electrolytic aluminum enterprises are purchasing a moderate amount of spot alumina to replenish their stocks, which has led to some market activity. In the context of a weak market, traders still have a certain selling sentiment before the holiday. Additionally, with plans for new alumina production capacity coming online both domestically and internationally in the near future, market expectations are weak. Therefore, it is unlikely that alumina prices will change their downward trend in the short term.