The futures price of alumina is currently maintaining a stable range, and conditions are not conducive to a significant widening of the basis, making large-scale spot purchases or sales by futures and spot traders unlikely for now. Spot prices have started to rise under relatively active premium transactions, with an increase in "fixed price" spot deals. In the current market, price discovery is more influenced by the proactive inventory replenishment of small and medium-sized downstream buyers, making premium trading relatively more likely.

The alumina futures prices are currently fluctuating without new upward drivers. The futures prices are supported at the bottom due to the firmness of the spot price quotes. Since August, there have been no signs of resumption of production in upstream Shanxi and Henan mines, while downstream electrolytic aluminum plants continue to have strong restocking demand. It is important to monitor the psychological changes of financial traders, producers, and essential buyers, as these are key factors influencing spot liquidity and price discovery.

In the Shanxi region, the alumina spot market has seen a significant increase in "one-price" transactions, which has driven local alumina prices higher. In the short term, the limited availability of spot alumina and transactions are the main drivers for price discovery. Currently, the spot transaction benchmarks in the Shanxi and Henan regions are generally between 3950-3970 RMB per ton, with quotes trending between 3970-3990 RMB per ton.

As of August 28th, there has been no significant change in the alumina market's operational status. The built production capacity for alumina in China is 10.28million tons, with operational capacity at 8.795 million tons, resulting in an operational rate of 85.55%.

As some downstream electrolytic aluminum companies enter a period of concentrated procurement, purchasing willingness has increased, leading to a noticeable rise in "fixed price" transactions in the alumina spot market. Currently, confirmed samples show the following transactions in Shanxi province:

The alumina futures prices lack upward momentum and are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Spot prices have begun to rise under relatively active premium transactions, with an increase in “fixed price” spot deals. It is anticipated that in the short term, alumina futures prices will mainly experience narrow fluctuations. Spot prices are likely to stay on the higher side, but within a limited range, due to the lack of significant changes in the fundamentals.