The supply pressure in the alumina market remains, and the bearish sentiment among market participants regarding the outlook is still strong. As futures prices continue to decline, it may exert further pressure on alumina prices.

The price of alumina overseas is showing an accelerated downward trend. Currently, the estimated import cost is still more than 300 RMB higher than the domestic price. However, market participants are beginning to consider the possibility of a potential asymmetrical timing effect for alumina importation on a single-ship market basis in the future, due to the significant characteristics of sporadic overseas transactions and the substantial price drop in individual deals over time. Regarding export possibilities, considering the significant pressure on sellers to lower prices, the lowest price in the Shandong region is estimated at 3,200 RMB (offshore) with an export cost of around 442 USD, meaning the export window is theoretically closed.

In this phase, large alumina enterprises have become the main force in production cuts. By tracking the three large alumina enterprises in Jin, Lu, and Chongqing, which have significant production changes, the expected static reduction in production capacity over the next 30 days is more than 6 million tons. However, considering that at least 4.6 million tons of the capacity reduction is due to maintenance-related cuts, the absolute capacity change for these enterprises is around 2 million tons. From a production perspective, the expected impact on production over the next 30 days is estimated to be a relative change of 150,000 to 180,000 tons. In the short term, considering the real-time and expected changes in supply (the majority of the above-mentioned capacity changes are expected to occur from the end of this month to mid-next month), the supply-demand pressure for alumina will temporarily ease. With the introduction of new capacity and the parallel process of production cuts and ramp-ups, coupled with expectations of cost reduction mainly driven by bauxite prices, alumina prices in the medium to long term will still require a change from quantity to quality in supply adjustments before any reversal in trends can occur.

The continuous commissioning of new capacity, combined with the high operating rates of existing capacity, has led to a strong bearish sentiment in the market. If prices continue to fall, causing more companies to incur losses, it may trigger concentrated production cuts. Inland alumina enterprises are now facing a dilemma, with the high cost of using imported bauxite and insufficient domestic bauxite supply. The entire alumina industry is under pressure from multiple factors, including cost pressures, overcapacity, and falling prices. In the short term, alumina companies are forced to maintain operations through "low-profit, high-volume production." However, the long-term supply-demand imbalance may lead to an industry "shakeout." The future price trend will depend on the scale of production cuts and cost changes.

There is an expectation of early shipments from some relatively weaker small and medium-sized alumina companies, as trading businesses in the industry extend their reach. Although the recent improvement in non-aluminum demand has supported alumina demand and stabilized market prices to some extent, the oversupply of alumina has become a consensus within the industry. Coupled with the low trading sentiment of market participants, it is expected that spot transactions will once again form a relatively continuous low-price trend.

In some regions, prices have declined. Supply is increasing and consolidating, mainly in remote warehouses in Xinjiang and alumina in transit, which is gradually transitioning into offline spot trading, occurring on a small scale and with high frequency. Currently, market sentiment is the main influencing factor.