Currently, the market for "one-price" spot transactions has relatively decreased, and website price premiums have become the main subject of spot negotiations. It is understood that spot negotiations are generally based on a premium of 30-50 yuan above the monthly average price on the website for the next month, with the higher premium range of over 100 yuan temporarily coming to an end.

Due to the influence of market sentiment, the price of alumina on the futures market has risen again, with occasional small transactions in the spot market. Since the beginning of the year, China has remained a net exporter of alumina. From October to the present, the main export cities for market-driven alumina have been concentrated in ports such as Guangxi and Shandong. The sudden changes in absolute volume continue to exacerbate the tight domestic spot supply situation.

The active procurement of Australian bauxite and Brazilian alumina by factories in the Middle East and South Asia indicates that the flow of overseas bauxite and alumina remains misaligned. The price of bulk ore continues to rise sharply, with both high and low-temperature bauxite from Guinea reaching quotes above $100 per ton, and the seriousness of some orders has clearly declined. Additionally, with the recent increase in caustic soda prices, the alumina production cost in the Jin-Yu region is expected to exceed the 3,500 yuan/ton benchmark, with some companies' future costs approaching 4,000 yuan/ton. Overall, the spot market remains stable, and the benchmark transaction price in Shanxi remains around 5,750 yuan/ton.

The market currently lacks a clear directional trend, with both the market sentiment and spot prices remaining relatively mild, and the overall trend staying slightly upward. A key focus for the market is whether the demand for metallurgical-grade alumina will weaken relatively quickly. The primary concerns for sudden developments are centered around whether the supply and reserves of bauxite will impact the production of some alumina enterprises, and whether winter snowfalls or abnormal weather conditions will drive urgent procurement by certain low-inventory electrolytic aluminum enterprises.

The outlook for the alumina spot market remains supported by supply tightness, maintaining an upward trend. However, the premium levels are increasingly influenced by micro factors on the demand side, although these changes tend to unfold over a relatively longer period.

Alumina prices are fluctuating at high levels, and heavy pollution weather warnings have been reissued. Due to environmental protection policies, the production of some alumina enterprises may continue to be restricted, affecting the changes in operating capacity during this period. The spot market remains in a premium trading pattern, with website prices in the northern market, especially in the Shanxi region, trending around 5,550 yuan/ton.