Driven by the increased production cost pressure of alumina, some alumina plants in the Jin-Yu region have generally lowered their ore procurement prices to alleviate the current stage of business losses. However, the price decline at the raw material end does not contribute significantly to the alumina enterprises' ability to gain greater profits. Against the backdrop of potential supply surplus, it actually strengthens participants' bearish market expectations.

Currently, alumina enterprises are engaging in a game over the import ore prices, especially in the second quarter, hoping to reduce costs to alleviate the losses incurred in recent periods. Recently, during a field trip to Shanxi, it was found that some enterprises with tunnel mining operations have been in a state of suspension from the beginning of the year, waiting for relatively relaxed policy requirements before resuming production. Currently, only large enterprises such as Zhong Aluminum in the Jin and Yu regions are operating, and after ensuring mining conditions meet requirements and strengthening supervision, domestic ore supply has seen a subtle increase.

The short-term benefits due to the surge in exports are still maintaining, but the limited spot transactions make it difficult to trigger a significant market rebound. However, it has relatively stopped the previous trend of obvious discounts and the panic-driven expectations of participants. It is understood that there is still domestic spot demand for sourcing based on previously negotiated export contracts. From the recent public overseas transactions, the price gap between domestic and international markets continues to narrow, and the market-driven export window is gradually closing. The medium- and long-term pressure in the spot alumina market remains.

As the price gap between domestic and international alumina expands, the export window enters a period of profit growth. Coupled with the increase in warehouse receipts, which leads to a reduction in the availability of spot supply in the short term, as well as stable demand from downstream aluminum plants, multiple factors are supporting the market. Currently, market sentiment has significantly improved compared to the previous period, and psychological expectations are turning more favorable in the short term. It is expected that alumina prices will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short run. However, in the medium to long term, alumina still faces pressure due to the continued release of supply increases, expected declines in ore costs, and other factors.

Currently, there are certain differences between the northern and southern regions in terms of the timing and speed of the decline. However, overall, the decline in both regions has narrowed compared to the previous period. In the southern market, short-term overall production remains relatively stable. However, with the continuous rise in imported ore prices, the reduced use of imported ore by enterprises, and the fact that domestic ore mining has not yet been fully released, there is still an expected degree of production fluctuation for southern alumina plants in the future.

The market for alumina has seen an active inquiry atmosphere, with both export traders and financial traders showing increased signs of purchasing alumina. As the volume of alumina exports rises and transaction prices increase, regional alumina prices have started to stop falling and rebound, entering a phase of fluctuation. In the short term, signs of a price stabilization are gradually emerging. However, with the repair of price discrepancies between domestic and international markets, along with future delivery pressures on the flow of alumina in stockpiles, the structural imbalance of oversupply in the alumina market remains, and medium- to long-term pressure is expected to persist.