The signed export orders and those in the process of being signed have reached a certain scale. It is expected that the market-oriented export contracts signed within the month will exceed 100,000 tons. In other regions, rigid demand may still enter the spot market for procurement, which could further suppress the current low-price structure. When sellers actively enter the market, the spot alumina price reaches a relatively balanced force between sellers and buyers, with market-making transactions occurring. It is expected that alumina prices will stabilize and show potential for fluctuation during this phase.

From a supply perspective, the loose state is still in the development process. The static monthly surplus remains, and the market is waiting for the cumulative effect of scale production cuts. Trading is in a brief observation phase, with relatively increased buying interest at certain time points. As a result, the price decline has slowed, and support is gradually strengthening. In the medium to long term, the focus of alumina enterprises is no longer on sales prices but more on decisions related to production cuts and the bargaining of ore prices. In any case, the reduction in alumina operating capacity from its recent high points or potential future highs, or an increase in exports, will be necessary to curb the current market's downward inertia.

As the profit margins in the alumina industry continue to decline, factories in major producing regions such as Henan and Shanxi have recently adjusted their production schedules. This is mainly reflected in three characteristics: the early implementation of planned maintenance, a relative decrease in ore price negotiations and stockpiling, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement driven by technological upgrades. These changes indicate that the industry is entering a phase of periodic production adjustments.

Market expectations that the price of bauxite will decline, which will reduce the production cost of alumina, are supporting and intensifying bearish sentiment. There is a general consensus that the supply-demand balance will shift towards a loose market, with the combined contribution of new domestic capacity additions and the release of new capacity in Indonesia.

The willingness to significantly lower prices remains unchanged under the downstream aluminum plants' demand for restocking. Affected by the continuous decline in alumina prices and other factors, the production of some alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, and even Shandong is approaching the cost line and nearing a loss. However, the settlement price executed according to financial standards has not yet reached the current real-time transaction prices, and the losses of individual enterprises in certain regions are not yet widespread. The release of new market capacity in the future is expected to offset some of the space left by earlier capacity reductions and suspensions. The reduction and suspension of capacities in regions such as Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou, and especially Shandong and Guangxi, has accumulated and will become an important indicator for future market trends. At the current stage, there is still a possibility that alumina prices will further decline.

The northern market continues to show a downward trend, with the coastal regions of northern China, particularly the Shandong market, exhibiting characteristics of price subsidies and leading the decline. Prices in the Jin-Yu (Shanxi-Henan) region have temporarily remained unaffected due to cost support factors. What can be anticipated is that alumina producers in the southwestern region generally have a cost advantage, while the potential flow pressure for Shandong alumina is mainly driven by the need to bridge the price gap. On the other hand, alumina producers in the Jin-Yu region do not have a cost advantage, and alumina from coastal regions, mainly Shandong, will continue to flow to their traditional supply areas, such as aluminum plants in the northwest. This will likely lead to potential capacity adjustments in the future. With the ongoing pressure on bauxite and increasing pressure actions, the downward cost expectation for alumina remains present in market trading.