The downstream aluminum plants still have a strong intention to replenish their stocks. Taking advantage of the expected supply pressure increase and the downward market inertia, major aluminum plants continue to form noticeable discounts through bidding procurement and "fixed price" transactions. In the northern market, real-time transactions are mainly driven by the supply from Shandong, with relatively lower transaction prices. The real-time ex-factory price of spot aluminum calculated through bidding and other methods is between 3360-3430 RMB/ton. This price is already lower than the production cost of some Shandong capacities that use high-priced bauxite, and lower than the production costs of most alumina companies in Shanxi and Henan that use purchased bauxite. The alumina companies have not yet faced significant production cut pressure or any news related to it.

The sporadic market-oriented exports have a potential window period, but their impact on alleviating the current domestic market pressure is limited. Some participants predict that as alumina prices decline, high-cost alumina producers will face increased survival pressure, which could put pressure on ore prices and continue to subtly lower cost-cutting efforts, thereby gradually adjusting the psychological expectations for selling prices.

Before the holiday, the expectation of the release of new and resumed alumina production capacity gradually turned into actual output, with alumina daily production steadily increasing. The market supply pattern has gradually transitioned from a tight situation to a more relaxed one, and alumina prices continue to face pressure. Affected by factors such as disruptions in bauxite supply from Guinea, and an increase in the proportion of imported long-term contract and spot bauxite, the cost of alumina bauxite still has room to rise in the future. The concept of alumina cost support is gradually strengthening.

The overall market trading atmosphere remains calm, with isolated low-priced market-making transactions not being ruled out. Large discounts in transactions are mainly concentrated under the background of major aluminum producers' multiple conditions. Some small and medium-sized aluminum manufacturers indicate that they are still unable to purchase in real-time. As expectations of slight oversupply emerge, low-price transactions are expected to persist.

Ahead of the Spring Festival, prices quickly fell under the influence of spot transactions. By the time the holiday approached, website prices had gradually aligned with spot transaction prices, with the adjustment range narrowing slightly. During the Spring Festival, close attention will still be needed to monitor changes in raw material transportation and alumina shipments. After the holiday, market sentiment and price fluctuations will require feedback from market transactions.

Some electrolytic aluminum companies still have a replenishment intention, and spot transactions of alumina in both the northern and southern regions have emerged successively. It is expected that prices will be difficult to stabilize in the short term. In the absence of any significant positive factors, some industry participants still hold a bearish sentiment regarding the future market.