Supply Side: Domestic and international rainy seasons are disrupting supply. The situation in Guinea is affecting shipments, and tight ore supplies are causing ore prices to remain strong, which is expected to continue into September. The proportion of imported ore in China is gradually increasing, and there is an expectation for continued ramp-up in production capacity in Inner Mongolia. Recent social inventory of spot aluminum oxide has been declining at a slower rate.
Demand Side: In southern regions, production capacity is gradually increasing by 300,000 tons, leading to higher restocking demand from aluminum plants. Market entry by traders for procurement will intensify spot shortages, delaying the delivery speed of long-term contracts. This month, the prices on the three major exchanges are likely to continue rising. Overseas, prices remain high, with substantial exports expected in the third quarter, maintaining a tight fundamental outlook.
