The northern market continues to show a downward trend, with the coastal regions of northern China, particularly the Shandong market, exhibiting characteristics of price subsidies and leading the decline. Prices in the Jin-Yu (Shanxi-Henan) region have temporarily remained unaffected due to cost support factors. What can be anticipated is that alumina producers in the southwestern region generally have a cost advantage, while the potential flow pressure for Shandong alumina is mainly driven by the need to bridge the price gap. On the other hand, alumina producers in the Jin-Yu region do not have a cost advantage, and alumina from coastal regions, mainly Shandong, will continue to flow to their traditional supply areas, such as aluminum plants in the northwest. This will likely lead to potential capacity adjustments in the future. With the ongoing pressure on bauxite and increasing pressure actions, the downward cost expectation for alumina remains present in market trading.
