The price of alumina overseas is showing an accelerated downward trend. Currently, the estimated import cost is still more than 300 RMB higher than the domestic price. However, market participants are beginning to consider the possibility of a potential asymmetrical timing effect for alumina importation on a single-ship market basis in the future, due to the significant characteristics of sporadic overseas transactions and the substantial price drop in individual deals over time.
Regarding export possibilities, considering the significant pressure on sellers to lower prices, the lowest price in the Shandong region is estimated at 3,200 RMB (offshore) with an export cost of around 442 USD, meaning the export window is theoretically closed.
