The spot price has reached the current level, and the actual production capacity in most areas of Jin, Yu, and Qian, including some parts of Shandong, has begun to enter the theoretical cash loss stage. However, due to the long settlement cycle of long-term contracts, enterprises have not yet experienced significant cash losses in terms of financial statements. Therefore, the supply-demand relationship changes after the end of March are more noteworthy, especially in April. The alumina industry is in a process of gradual production cuts (the willingness and speed of production cuts are important to watch). New production capacities are in the process of commissioning and system alignment. It is expected that the overall price trend will show a downward trajectory with increasing resistance to decline. In the later period, more attention should be paid to whether there will be a significant decrease in imported ores. At least in the early part of the second quarter, based on long-term contract prices, there are no significant signs of relaxation from miners.
