The market has a deviation in its expectations regarding alumina production cuts, and the actual scale of production cuts is currently not as large as anticipated, requiring more time for confirmation. A reduction in alumina production means ceding market share, while also facing the continued rise in costs. Although high-cost alumina companies have already started experiencing cash flow losses after the month changes, the specific decisions by alumina companies regarding medium- to long-term production cuts or suspensions have not yet been understood. The current market’s volatile trend is mainly driven by the 10-20 day production losses and supply mismatches caused by maintenance-related production cuts.
Inland small- to medium-sized alumina producers, constrained by low ore self-sufficiency rates and incomplete industrial chain support, have begun to experience passive production cuts, but these cuts are not yet on a scale that significantly alters production levels. Coastal large alumina companies, benefiting from stable long-term supply contracts for bauxite and the logistical cost advantages brought by their port location, still retain some marginal profit space. These companies continue to produce and expand capacity according to their scheduled timelines, with the supply pressure continuously being shifted to higher-cost production capacities.
