The overseas transaction prices continue to decline sharply, and export conditions are insufficient. There is a possibility of imports driven by large overseas traders’ early shipments under asymmetric timing. The current market presents a mismatch between “strong supply reality” and “weak demand expectations.” In the short term, the alumina price is expected to continue its trend of fluctuating decline. Regarding the possibility of production cuts, alumina plants with supporting capacity or those not under heavy export pressure are expected to reduce production relatively earlier. Medium and small-scale alumina enterprises will face a test of their willingness to cut production, and if large-scale production cuts occur, they will face the risk of losing customers.
