The current alumina price, including the long-term settlement price, continues to decline, having fallen below the cash cost line of high-cost alumina enterprises such as Jin and Yu. This is forcing the industry to accelerate market-driven production cuts and flexible production. Enterprises are generally suspending spot sales and shifting to fulfilling immediate long-term contracts or executing production cuts with minimal inventory to reduce cash flow losses. In regions like Xinjiang, the ex-factory price continues to fall due to the drag from the futures-spot linkage, while in the main production areas of Jin and Lu, the price decline is smaller due to the contraction in spot supply. At present, short-term price discovery is still dominated by the trading side, and the downtrend has not yet changed, but the bottom support and expectations are gradually strengthening.
