The uncertainty and risk regarding Guinea’s bauxite supply continue to raise concerns in the market. In the spot market, downstream aluminum plants are actively engaging in small-scale discounted purchases, which has led to a continuous decline in long-term contract settlement prices. This, in turn, has created ongoing panic in both the industry and futures-spot trade, with this sentiment expected to persist in the medium term. Small-scale discounted transactions are likely to continue in the future. Currently, the market has reached a consensus that alumina supply will shift from a shortage to a phase of surplus next year. The remaining divergence lies in the timing and continuity of the substantial shift in the supply-demand balance.
