Considering the high-profit incentives stimulating production enthusiasm, the optimistic forecast suggests that alumina actual production may reach around 7.38 million tons. The neutral forecast estimates primary aluminum production at approximately 3.62 million tons, with net exports of 150,000 tons and consumption by non-aluminum industries at 350,000 tons (approximately 50,000 tons less than the normal value). Based on these figures, it is expected that there will be a shortage of about 50,000 tons of alumina supply in November.
The key variables to consider are:
These key factors have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance. Overall, we expect the alumina supply-demand balance in November to likely result in a shortage of 50,000 to 100,000 tons, with the shortage narrowing but continuing on a monthly basis.
