The upward momentum in alumina prices is expected to reverse over a longer period. During this time, both the supply and demand for alumina must change; only when these two factors intersect will a market transition occur. At least until the end of the year, due to heightened environmental constraints during the heating season, the opening of export windows, and the intertwining of low inventory and urgent demand, the current spot market premium situation is unlikely to change. Once financial forces observe various bullish factors converging, the enthusiasm for trading in the futures market is likely to remain high.
From the perspective of price increases, a rapid rise in prices is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Profits and cash flow need to be converted appropriately among real enterprises to ensure the long-term existence of production foundations across all sectors. Only when both ends of the real enterprises thrive can they support the orderly and moderate profit-making of various derivative forces. Excessive speculation will undoubtedly harm the market, and all parties willing to remain in this industry long-term must maintain a sense of reverence for the market.
